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Prediction for CME (2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-08-30T20:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40987/-1
CME Note: Wide CME observed first by STEREO A COR2 at 2025-08-30T20:09Z. Updated observations in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 from preliminary analysis where they were not included due to field-of-view with GOES CCOR-1 and a downlink gap resuming at 2025-08-30T21:20Z for SOHO LASCO. The source for this CME is a long duration M2.7 class flare from AR 14199 (N03E13) which began at 2025-08-30T19:11Z and peaked at 2025-08-30T20:02Z, viewed well in SDO AIA 131. Wide field line opening, dimming, and an EUV wave are observed in SDO AIA 131/171/193/211 and GOES SUVI 284. Brightening as a double ribbon flare and post-eruptive arcade observed in SDO AIA 131/171/193/211/304 and GOES SUVI 304. Additionally observed from STEREO A EUVI 195 as field line opening and dimming, and STEREO A EUVI 304 as brightening, around N03E60 as viewed from STEREO A. Arrival: Significant shock arrival with magnetic field rapidly increasing from 5 nT to 26 nT over several minutes near 2025-09-01T20:26Z in association with the arrival of CMEs: 2025-08-30T00:23Z and halo CME 2025-08-30T20:09Z. Wind speeds rapidly increase from 390 km/s to 675 km/s, and temperature rapidly increases from 80,000 Kelvin to over 1 million Kelvin following the arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-09-01T20:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-09-01T15:55Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 8.0 - 9.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/40993/1
Model Inputs:
2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-8.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=1265.0, HalfAngle=53.0, Time21.5=2025-08-30T22:44Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-09-01T15:55Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =29.0 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 4.8
(kp)90=8
(kp)180=9

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-09-01T16:40Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-09-01T18:57Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 45.80 hour(s)
Difference: 4.52 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2025-08-30T22:38Z

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